Hanson, Steffy, and Gauthier (1993) found that victim's gender is a powerful predictor of offender recidivism.
A second study found that same-sex offenders had the lowest number of criminal charges [8% vs 22%] (Langevin, et al.)
I am concerned somewhat about this result however. I would think that perhaps same-sex-male victims may not have come forward to the same extent as opposite-sex-female victims would, primarily due to an increased social-stigma and embarrassment factor that may be present.
What is well supported is the two additional variables used as predictors of recidivism. According to Prentky, Knight, and Lee (1997) the number of prior offenses and the intensity of an offender's fixation on children are both great predictors. The latter of the two, offenders fixation, is measured by a plethysmographic instrument, which measures the change in fluid levels of the penis that are caused by fluctuations in blood pressure, and usage of such an instrument in a correctional system may create some ethical issues.
Hanson, R.K., Steffy, R. A., & Gauthier, R. (1993). Long-term recidivism of child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61, 646-652.
Langevin, R., Hucker,
S. J., Handy, L., Hook, H.J., Purins, J.E., & Russon, A. E. (1985).
Erotic preference and aggression in pedophilia: A comparison of heterosexual,
homosexual, and bisexual types. In R. Langevin (Ed.), Erotic preference,
gender identity, and aggression in men: New research studies. Hillsdale,
Prentky, R. A., Knight, R. A, & Lee, A. F. S. (1997). Risk Factors Associated With Recidivism Among Extrafamilial Child Molesters. Journal of Counsulting and Clinical Psychology, 65 (1), 141-149.
Written By Michael W. Decaire